Vitalik Buterin has promised to launch Proof of Stake (PoS) in “9-12 months” in 2015

From 9 to 12 months in 2015, Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum and also the leader of the platform, promised to launch Proof of Stake (PoS).

Just two days before the Ethereum genesis launch, on July 28, 2015, an Etherean said: “I believe the transition to PoS will happen quite soon (~ 1 year)”.

Vitalik Buterin1

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum

Buterin stated in response at the time: “Yes, the plan is 9-12 months, taking into account Hofstadter’s law.” There is a rule that says: “It always takes more time than you expect, even if you expect Hofstadter’s law.”

However, the Ethereum development team did not implement Proof of Stake in 2015 or 2016 as promised. The next year, they had a DAO hack event and created a bit of a mess, but even in 2017, they didn’t focus much on PoS. When the hybrid version of PoS was coming out in mid-2018, everything seemed to burst in an unexpected move.

The new Ethereum 2.0 blockchain was later announced to launch later this year or on January 3, 2020, but it is still a hybrid PoS and more importantly, until now has not been launched (only 4 days left). The protocol estimate will appear in the first quarter of next year but has now been pushed back to the second quarter and the full version of Proof of Stake will arrive before 2021.

The good news is that the time is now in months, not years. More interestingly, Buterin further revealed the clear relationship between block time and release:

“We have pledged in our agreement to sell Ether to maintain a reward of less than 26% of the amount of Ether sold each year. With 60 million Ether, that is 29.71 Ether per minute.

Assuming 5 ETH per block, 1 block every 14 seconds and uncle block speed is 0.4, suitable for high load conditions. That helps us to reach 30 ETH per minute, almost equal to the maximum. Documents that sell Ether specifically specify a maximum of 26% but don’t always reach this level and I feel it’s important to keep that promise, seeing the 26% target as a reasonable upper limit, not an average.

They planned 13 seconds per block, but because of the ICO promise above, they changed to 15 seconds per block. Coincidentally earlier this year, the block time was reduced to 12 seconds per block from 15 seconds.

Now, they are activating the difficulty bomb through a hard fork on New Year’s Day for 2 years to help block time limit the rate of increase of the Ethereum inflation rate.

Ethereum 2.0 is expected to launch on January 3, 2020

Ethereum 2.0’s Zero Phase, which allows Proof of Stake (PoS), is targeted to launch on January 3, 2020, seven months from now.

That would be exactly 11 years after the bitcoin genesis block was launched on January 3, 2009, with Justin Drake, an eth 2.0 researcher, citing the 11th anniversary of bitcoin is a reason to choose that specific date.

He said that they were on the right track for this phase zero spec freeze on June 30, for about two weeks.

Therefore, for new realistic goals, there are two milestones. First, the deposit contract is launched before the genesis block to allow validators to make deposits.

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