Three primary factors expected will up Bitcoin price to over $15,000 in 2020
Bitcoin (BTC) price has not been doing all too hot as of late, down by some 45% from its year-to-date peak of $14,000. However, over the past few weeks, it rose more than 30% from $ 6,750 to a high of $ 8,910 in this short span of time. Moreover, other cryptos, too, like Bitcoin SV and Dash, have also exploded higher, announcing jaw-dropping gains as a seeming bull run is back on the table.
According to a well-known industry research company, this price action could be an indication that there is a “better and healthier r dynamic is underway this year”, this momentum, they wrote, could bring Bitcoin price up to $ 15,000 by the end of this year.
Bitcoin has a “strong probability” can gain over 100% in 2020
Recently, Fundstrat Global Advisors, a top market strategy and sector research company based in New York, released its 2020 Crypto Outlook to its clients. A portion of the report was posted on Twitter by Thomas Lee – the firm’s resident crypto bull and company head of research.
The improved performance of crypto in 2020 is evidence that a better and healthier dynamic is underway this year. In our view, three positive convergences are acting as tailwinds for #bitcoin and other #crypto in 2020 https://t.co/CcmLtr7M8i
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) January 15, 2020
Per this report, it said that the American firm believes that BTC has a “strong probability” that can gain 100% in 2020, meaning a year-end price of over $15,000, due to a confluence of three below primary factors. This may sound crazy, especially when considering the indiscriminate sentiment being thrown at the moment (just look to Twitter to predict under $3,000), but that’s not impossible.
First – The Bitcoin halving
So, what happens after “halving” – the Bitcoin block reward gets cut in half in May 2020? The crypto-friendly firm shared that effectively resulting in a 50% decrease in the inflation rate of the leading crypto. Additionally, analysts said that this should cause a supply crunch in the cryptocurrency market that could push prices dramatically higher.
Besides, a price model created by pseudonymous quant PlanB, accurate to a 95% R squared when backtested, also suggests BTC will rally by some 90% from the current price of $8,000 to hit $15,500 by the approximate date of the May this year halving.
Second – Geopolitical risk
Then, Fundstrat looked at potential geopolitical risks. With the ongoing conflicts between the United States and China, the U.S and Iran and other attacks taking place across the globe, BTC may start to prove itself as a digital and non-sovereign store of value in these trying times.
Last – a presidential election in 2020
This point was not expanded, although there are some candidates that are more crypto-friendly than others such as Andrew Yang.
Moreover, according to a machine learning-based price model created by Twitter user “Data Dater”, which used the prediction modeling system of Facebook Prophet, BTC will soon its recovery.
In fact, the model based on analysis of Bitcoin’s stock to flow ratio multiple (S2F Multiple), shows that BTC will begin a fresh, much more mild uptrend to head into May 2020. Data Dater’s chart, in fact, implies that Bitcoin will rise by 25% to $10,000 by mid-Nov, get a local peak at $11,500 by Jan, and then dip back down to $11,000.
Furthermore, earlier this year, Mike McGlone, analyst of Bloomberg also wrote that with the largest crypto maturing into more of an institutional, macro asset, it will likely start to trade alongside gold, which he claims is likely to outperform this year due to a number of factors.
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