The founder of Silk Road marketplace predicts Bitcoin price will go below $ 3,000
Before Bitcoin price greets a bull, it’ll give a deep bow to a bear, predicts Ross Ulbricht, the 36-year-old programmer, early BTC adopter, and founder of the darknet market website Silk Road. Ulbricht started sharing his price examinations last December and he leveraged the patterns of Elliott Wave theory to bolster his forecast.
Silk Road founder published another analysis about Bitcoin price
Ulbricht is today spending his 2,386 days in prison for money laundering and computer hacking, among other convictions. He was given two life sentences plus 40 years without parole, because of which he started a petition for his clemency that now has over 282,000 signatures. And now, he’s sending his forecasts from behind bars, prompting mostly adverse reactions among his followers on Twitter.
— Ross Ulbricht (@RealRossU) April 11, 2020
Looking at the previous cycles, Ulbricht predicts that the price of the world’s number one coin might go way down, by as much as $ 5,000 from its current value, before it climbs to significant benefits.
Using a technical analysis method called Elliot Wave Theory, according to which the market’s movements are predictable phases or waves, Ulbricht argues that BTC has passed through two cycles with several waves. In essence, the first, bull market one, lasted from 2011 until 2017 when BTC reached $ 20,000, while we are currently witnessing the last wave of its second, bearish cycle.
Ulbricht continued by adding:
“In terms of duration, if wave C lasts as long as wave A, it will end around June or July 2020. However, waves C of two and wave C of four (not labeled in Figure 1) were considerably larger than the respective A waves. If wave C of two conforms to this pattern, it could drag on into 2021.”
Ross Ulbricht’s Bitcoin price analysis
What’s important here is that, according to Ulbricht, Bitcoin price is now at the place it was in 2014, and it is indeed following the same scenario. It will drop more, perhaps even below $ 3,000, and it will stay down for a while – likely until June/July this year, or even until next year.
“Estimating the extent and duration of wave II is difficult and imprecise. There is no limit to how low it can go because wave I started at $ 0. And there is no hard limit to how long it could take.”
“A break below the major low of $ 3,200 will be a solid confirmation of this, at which point we will be trying to determine when the final low is in. However, if the price goes above the peak near $ 14,000, a reevaluation of the prediction will be necessary, but at this point, that seems like an improbable scenario.”
However, the good news is that Bitcoin going so low is an excellent opportunity to buy this crypto, he finds. Furthermore, following the short-term drop, comes the long-term rise in the price. It will take courage to buy in such an environment, but the rewards as wave III takes prices to new highs will be well worth it.
Ulbricht also notes that the end of this wave will come with extreme pessimism and possibly antagonism toward Bitcoin, on par with the excessive optimism that accompanied the end of wave.
Meanwhile, it seems that the majority of the commenters do not agree with this analysis:
“$175–$1,240” clearly refers to Wave ⓸ in 2014.
Ross did *not* say the prices would dip that low before the halving (no halving mentioned in the post).
He actually said current Wave II “could drag on into 2021.”
— ClemencyForRoss (@ClemencyForRoss) April 11, 2020
Dude.. Are you for real? This guy is the first person that made Bitcoin useful. In 2010 you didn’t even know about BTC. What he is saying is unpopular but more probable than what you think. BTW 90% of TA is like horoscope. His TA actually falls in the 10% which is good.
— Eisenhower (@EisenhowerBtc) April 12, 2020
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