September looks like a bad month for XRP price, will it come back above $1?

Pressured by numerous minor crashes during the month, XRP’s 30-day ROI has dropped to over 12%. With little interest from retail traders, XRP price has been unable to catch up with some of its other counterparts. At the time of writing, the sixth-largest coin on CoinMarketCap is trading at $0.947, down 12% in the past seven days.

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XRP/USD 4-hour chart | Source: TradingView

Will XRP price come back above $1, perhaps to $1.29?

Since September 7, a crypto analyst from AMBcrypto stated that XRP started forming in a falling wedge pattern – a setup that usually triggers an upward breakout. Now, before realizing such an outcome, it is important to understand the market’s current dynamics.

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XRP has been trading below the 200 SMA (green), which is a bearish sign. Moreover, most of its indicators are in bearish control. Combined with a weaker broader market, XRP will suffer more losses before a breakout is expected. These losses can extend to the $0.75-$0.78 support level, warrant a strong reaction from the buyers. Any of the moves below will lead to further bleeding.

If Ripple’s native token shows signs of a reversal between $0.75-$0.78, a rebound on solid volume will increase the chances of returning to the $1 mark. Price ceilings of $1.05, $1.12, and $1.30 will then be challenged.

Based on the factors mentioned above, XRP will continue to decrease in value in the coming days. However, the $0.75-$0.78 support area is XRP’s best bet to trigger an upward breakout from its falling wedge. This will pave the way for a return above $1 and a possible approach to $1.29 in a highly bullish scenario.

Agreeing with this view is also Raoul Pal, the CEO of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor. According to him, XRP price has a tremendous risk-reward ratio despite a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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Raoul Pal, the CEO of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor

“XRP is a great risk-reward. The lawsuit – we’ve seen every lawsuit, every single one has been fine. Everybody’s cleared up after the event anyway, and these events were a while ago. Bitmex, that’s happening, we’re going to see all of these, so I think it’s going to be a slap on the wrist that it could look like security, there’ll be no admission of guilt on either side, there’ll be a payment of a fine, and then XRP is free to run”, Pal said.

About some factors that will help drive up the price of the coin, Pal identified:

“What’s interesting about XRP is there is quite a lot of use cases. Now, I know many Bitcoin people hate it– it’s not decentralized enough, I don’t care. Are people using it? Yes, a lot more than most people realize, and what’s amazing about this setup is you can’t buy on any of the exchanges, and it’s not in the Bitwise ETF.”

He added: “The Bitwise ETF is now a billion of the Bitwise index. The top 10 index is a billion dollars, so the moment XRP is free, they have to buy a few hundred million dollars in it as everybody else can because the exchanges will have it back, so you’re setting up for a hell of a nice run if this clears up.”

“Worst case it doesn’t? Worst case is, let’s say, 50% downside, the best case is 10x from here, so I’ll take a 50 to 1 risk-reward for the next three to six months”, he said it is still worth betting on XRP despite the possibility of Ripple losing in its legal battle with regulators.

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