Ripple vs. SEC: John Deaton’s Analysis Reveals Less Than 3% Chance of SEC Victory

In the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), renowned attorney John Deaton has expressed his optimism regarding the outcome.

Deaton, the founder of CryptoLaw, has been a vocal advocate for Ripple and believes that the SEC has less than a 3% chance of securing an outright win against the company. As the long-running lawsuit draws closer to its conclusion, Deaton predicts favorable outcomes for Ripple, indicating that the odds are in their favor.

The SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, accusing the company of conducting an unregistered securities offering through the sale of its XRP token. Deaton’s support for Ripple has seen him challenge the SEC’s claims, and his analysis of the situation suggests a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency firm.

John Deaton

During a recent episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast on June 3, Deaton shared his predictions for the lawsuit. He assigned a 25% chance that U.S. District Judge Torres would rule outright in favor of Ripple, while giving a higher probability of 50% for a “splitting the baby” ruling in which both parties find some level of victory.

The concept of “splitting the baby” refers to Judge Torres potentially drawing a line in the sand, indicating that XRP may have been offered as an unregistered security before 2018. However, recent revelations surrounding the Hinman documents, which contain internal SEC messages regarding a 2018 speech by former SEC Director William Hinman, have raised the possibility that cryptocurrencies could transition from securities to commodities once they achieve sufficient decentralization.

Deaton stated, “I think that XRP itself is going to be deemed not a security, and that I think that secondary market sales show commitment. Even if [Judge Torres] does rule finding that Ripple violated the law, that doesn’t apply to secondary market sales.” He expects Judge Torres to reach a final decision before September 30 of this year.

Drawing attention to an intriguing aspect of the judicial process, Deaton mentioned a “six-month list” that district judges are required to file with Congress. This list reveals all the pending summary judgments that have exceeded six months. By not being included on this list, Judge Torres has avoided potential public scrutiny, which Deaton humorously refers to as a “public shame list” suggesting incompetence.

In addition to his analysis of the lawsuit’s outcome, Deaton also provided insights into the potential price trajectory of Ripple’s native XRP token in the event of a positive ruling. He expressed his belief that a price range between $2 and $10 per XRP token would be reasonable.

As the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC approaches its climax, the predictions and observations of influential figures like John Deaton provide valuable insights into the possible outcome. Ripple and its supporters remain hopeful that the conclusion of this legal battle will favor the cryptocurrency firm and have a positive impact on the XRP token’s market value. Only time will tell if Deaton’s predictions prove accurate, as the cryptocurrency industry eagerly awaits the resolution of this high-stakes legal dispute.

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