Possible Conclusion to Ongoing SEC vs. Ripple Legal Saga by 2027: Lawyer Predicts
In the ongoing legal battle between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, prominent attorney Jeremy Hogan recently took to X (formerly Twitter), to share his insights and predictions regarding potential future scenarios for the case. Hogan’s analysis suggests that a resolution may not be in sight until the year 2027.
Hogan’s tweets provided a detailed breakdown of the possible outcomes and the chances of each scenario unfolding. He began by noting that the SEC has the right to appeal the case once it reaches a “Final Judgment” stage. However, as per Hogan’s assessment, the SEC faces limited favorable options at this point.
Possibility #1: Trial Against Individual Defendants
- Chance: 39.456%
- Hogan pointed out that the judge has left the most challenging part of the case for trial, which could result in an unfavorable outcome for the SEC.
- If the SEC proceeds to trial, an appeal would not be filed until 2025, with an appellate ruling expected in 2026.
- Even if the SEC wins the appeal, the case may be remanded for further litigation, potentially leading to a final resolution by June 14, 2027.
Possibility #2: Settlement with Individual Defendants
- Chance: 32.113%
- According to Hogan, this is the SEC’s best option, but he doubts they will take it.
- Settling with the individual defendants would expedite the case’s journey to an appellate court, saving resources and bypassing a difficult case.
- Despite this, remedies litigation would still require months to complete, extending the timeline to August 14, 2026.
Possibility #3: Settlement of All Litigation
- Chance: 18.987%
- Hogan acknowledged that settlement is a viable option for the SEC, allowing them to claim a victory and collect a substantial settlement amount.
- The judge’s clarification that her ruling applies specifically to XRP’s facts opens the door for this possibility, but the SEC has shown limited willingness to compromise so far.
Possibility #4: Unknown Events
- Chance: 8.675%
- Hogan left room for unforeseen events, acknowledging that surprises can happen in complex legal cases.
Hogan’s analysis underscores that the SEC faces a limited set of options, with each scenario carrying its own challenges and timeframes. Meanwhile, the Summary Judgment remains in effect, and any potential changes to the case’s trajectory are not expected until at least 2026.
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