Kraken released its new market report, observing Bitcoin-related data and forecasting future trends

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has released its July market report, drawing on Bitcoin-related on-chain events and metrics to forecast future trends, the Coinpost reported.

Kraken July report reveals a lot about the upcoming altcoin season

Only in July, the Bitcoin price recorded an increase/decrease rate of up to 18%. Meanwhile, the altcoin market is somewhat dominant in terms of growth rate since the beginning of the year. The most prominent name is Dogecoin (DOGE), with a high increase of 4,287%. And Uniswap (UNI) showed an increase/decrease ratio of only 320% over the past half-year.


Source: Kraken

In addition, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached a positive level for the first time in the past six months since February 2021. While the stock market hit record highs in turn, it is analyzed that BTC price and gold price show correlated movements. Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index touched the “Greed” zone at a brisk pace at the end of July.


Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of August 9 | Source: Alternative.me

Finally, on-chain data indicates that large BTC holders and minors are continuing to buy more. And when the supply of BTC declines, this is a positive signal for the market.

According to the above statistics, NFTs recorded a monthly gain/loss ratio of 112%, indicating a booming market. The Sharpe ratio, an index that shows how much profit is expected for investment risk, hit 17.4, much higher than Bitcoin’s 6.0.

The increase is particularly noticeable with Axie Infinity, the game company that is gaining popularity as the price of AXS marks a 640% month-on-month increase. AXS has risen to the top 50 in CoinMarketCap market capitalization rankings.

According to an analysis report from Kraken, the Bitcoin Dominance will be the key signal for the “Altcoin season,” – which is attracting attention due to the significant growth of NFT and several other altcoins. In July, the index recorded its highest rate of 48.4% over the past three months.


Source: Kraken

According to the report, Bitcoin has been doing quite well in July of this year. BTC hodlers all received high returns of up to double digits, recording 18% in a month. The average return in the previous July was only 11%.

On the other hand, looking at historical data, August’s performance is generally gloomier than July’s. The report states: “The average return is 2% and the average growth is -7%. Since 2011, August has only performed three times better than July.”

However, based on historical data alone, it is difficult to predict the trend in the medium and long term as the growth/decline rate in the whole 3rd quarter is known to have large deviations.

Whales and cryptocurrency trades of the month

According to Kraken, large crypto investors, a.k.a. whales with holdings of more than 1,000 BTC, started accumulating BTC as the price returned to the $30,000 zone. After the price started to rise again, the accumulation of Bitcoin became more and more intense. The report suggested that this is a sign that major investors are anticipating a price increase.


Source: Kraken

BTC miners also pointed out that the newly mined BTC was not sold in July but had been accumulated in the wallet for the past month.

With Bitcoin’s strong recovery in July, it is expected that accumulation will continue to increase in August, further reducing the available supply in the market.

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