Is Bitcoin Heading for a Repeat of the 2019 Scenario?

Bitcoin is once again under scrutiny as analysts suggest it may repeat the scenario of April 6, 2019, to June 26, 2019, based on data by CryptoQuant. The MVRV Ratio Index broke its 365-day MA on January 29, 2023, and the MVRV movement looks strikingly similar to the period from April to June 2019, implying that Bitcoin could enter a price range of $30,000 to $37,000 before May-June 2023.

The scenario could be brought on by a couple of factors. Firstly, the US Treasury’s massive borrowing plan of $550 billion in Q4 2022 failed, leading to the release of almost $200 billion into the market. While this situation cannot continue for long, it is expected that the US will enter a recession in May-June 2023, which may impact Bitcoin’s performance due to its correlation with benchmark indices during critical moments.

Data from Glassnode further supports this theory, showing that the short-term holder realized price is above the realized price for the first time since May 2019. The same event occurred during the 2015 bear market, which ended after the short-term holder realized price exceeded the realized price.

Currently, the short-term holder realized price is at $19,892, while the realized price is at $19,850. It is crucial for Bitcoin’s price to stay above $20,000 in the short term to increase the cost basis of the short-term holder cohort.

In the coming weeks, we could see the short-term holder realized price try to exceed the long-term holder realized price, which is currently a difference of $3,000. This could signal a potential end to the bear market. However, with the uncertainty surrounding the market, it’s difficult to predict Bitcoin’s performance accurately.

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