Crypto Price Analysis 7/3: Bitcoin price will reach $100k in Q4 2020 plus ETH, XRP, ADA, XTZ
Mike Alfred, co-founder and CEO of data analytics outfit Digital Assets Data, recently pointed out miners as a potential catalyst for recent Bitcoin price action.
Bitcoin price has been bounced in the range between $ 8,600 to $ 10,000 over the past two months. BTC has shown little volatility since May, after having been significantly denied at $ 10,440.
According to data from Skew, Bitcoin’s 10-day volatility has dropped to its lowest level of the year on June 24. This could indicate that traders are cautious because BTC is at an important price point. The performance of BTC over the next few weeks may hint at its price trend throughout the year.
Bitcoin
Expectations for Bitcoin in the second quarter of 2020 are quite high. After starting a rally in late March, April turned out to be extremely positive in terms of positive profits. After completing a ‘Golden Cross’ and BTC halving, everyone is preparing for a consistent position above $ 10,000.
However, in the middle of Q2, the momentum began to exhaust, and June ended with Bitcoin recording a 13.13% decline.
When Q2 was over, renowned analyst PlanB shared an update on Bitcoin’s current location, his recently revealed S2FX model.
Source: PlanB / Twitter
The analyst believes that the Bitcoin price continued to adhere to his new price model by 2020, adding that it seems Bitcoin was nearing another rally before the end of the year.
PlanB initially discussed the S2FX model in April, at a time when the analyst also stated that Bitcoin could rise to $ 288,000 by 2024.
His latest update suggests that a new phase will begin when Q4 comes out, a development that will eventually take Bitcoin’s value to new heights.
While we have entered Q3, Q4 is still far away. However, three months is not a really long time in the financial industry. Despite its volatile nature, Bitcoin has taken time in the past to start its price-raising process. 2018 is a prime example when cryptocurrency assets go into a brutal winter for the whole year, before making moves in 2019.
However, before we analyze the validity of the S2FX model, we need to consider two other important events that occurred in May 2020 – Bitcoin halving and Golden Cross.
Source: TradingView
The Golden Cross for Bitcoin is still one of the few legitimate triggers for a rally. Therefore, the platform was available, but historically, it took time for the demonstration to begin.
Currently, 42 days have passed since the golden cross was completed, something that is still a positive sign for Bitcoin.
Similarly, history shows that a Bitcoin halving has benefited Bitcoin from a price perspective, but people tend to forget that its impact lasts for a long period of time.
As observed in the attached chart, after halving, Bitcoin took almost five months before registering a 17% growth. However, the protest that began after six months has passed.
The 3rd halving of Bitcoin takes place on May 11, 2020, so the 5-month period to post a price increase is on October 11, 2020.
Now, according to the aforementioned data, there is actually a valid argument to support PlanB’s S2FX model. Analysts have suggested that the rally could start in early Q4, and with months expected to pass after the 3rd halving, the ecosystem is likely to see annual highs later this year.
ETH
This week, Ethereum has risen steadily above $ 220. ETH price even broke the resistance of $ 230 yesterday along with the 100-hour SMA.
However, the bulls failed to hold the momentum, resulting in a new decline from a high of $ 233. Its price has plummeted below the support of $ 228 and the 100-hour SMA to return to the short-term bearish zone.
The bulls also failed to defend the ascending channel this week with the support of nearly $ 228 on the hourly ETH / USD chart. The pair is trading as low as $ 223 and is currently correcting higher. There is a break above the Fib 23.6% retracement of the recent decline from the $ 233 high to $ 223 low.
Source: TradingView
On the other hand, the previous support near $ 228 and the 100-hour SMA are acting as strong resistance. It is close to the 50% Fib retreat of the recent decline from a high of $ 233 to a low of $ 223.
It looks like there is an important resistance formed near $ 228, $ 230, and a new downtrend trend line on the same chart. The price of Ether must break these three barriers to start a new rally towards $ 232 and $ 235 in the coming sessions.
XRP
XRP price has dropped since reaching a high of $ 0.236 on April 30, coinciding with the 200-day MA. The decline has slowed down, and during this time, the support area of $ 0.175 has been confirmed many times.
This area is also the 0.5 Fib level of the whole move up, starting on March 13. Although this is a probable reversal area, the trend seems to be bearish as the price is also trading below the 50-day MA, and the RSI is also stable below 50.
Source: Tradingview
In the short term, we can see that XRP has created a double bottom, which is a bullish reversal pattern. Moreover, the bullish divergence on the RSI also confirms this pattern, both in the short and long term.
The price has also followed a descending resistance line since the beginning of June. While the double bottom shows a potential breakout, there is strong resistance at $ 0.19. The trend cannot be considered bullish unless the price breaks above this level and confirms it is a support.
Source: Tradingview
ADA
Cardano has made positive developments in the past week, with the ongoing rollout of the Shelly public mainnet stimulating the ADA community and causing the price of the token to rise higher.
ADA has increased since the beginning of April. However, the upward move has begun to show signs of weakness, foreshadowing that a peak may be within reach.
The price consolidated close to 500 satoshis between August 2019 and April 2020. It started an upward move on April 28 and has been accelerating ever since. It has been moving above the 50-week MA and confirming it is support for the week of June 15.
The closest resistance level found at 1170 satoshi is the 0.5 Fib level of the entire decline, starting in April 2019. Although it looks like price will rally there, it’s unclear whether the price will break out successfully.
Volume has increased significantly during the start of the move up, and there is not any bearish divergence on the RSI.
Source: Tradingview
1100-1200 satoshi is the target area found when outlining a five-wave Elliott formation from the start of the movement.
Although the 50-day and 200-day MAs have made a bullish cross and the price is trading on them, there is a significant bearish divergence on the RSI, an indication that this move may be coming to an end.
The fact that it is losing a particularly noticeable momentum during yesterday’s rally, which took place with a much smaller volume than some previous bullish candlesticks
Source: Tradingview
XTZ
Tezos price had dropped since June 2, when it reached a high of $ 3.13. The verified high of $ 3 is the resistance level as the price also reached a similar high at the end of April.
Shortly thereafter, the price broke down from an ascending support line formed from March 13, which could indicate that the bullish action has ended. The fact that the volume is already higher in the bearish candlesticks supports this possibility.
At the time of writing, the price is trading in a small support area of $ 2.3. If it breaks down, the next support area will be found at $ 2.05, the 0.5 Fib level of the entire upward move.
Source: Tradingview
Trader ‘The EW Guy’ posted an XTZ chart in which the price went up to $ 3.13. The target is only slightly higher than the key resistance.
Source: The EW Guy / Twitter
However, the short-term chart does not support such an increase. Price is currently in the process of making a fourth attempt at moving above the minor resistance of $ 2.43. While the RSI is moving upwards, it is still below 50, and there is not any bullish divergence to support the impending increase.
Moreover, the trading volume is minimal, and the price seems to be traded in a horizontal channel, often considered a neutral pattern.
Even if the price succeeds at breaking out, it will likely find significant resistance at $ 2.55, the previous support zone, and the 0.5 Fib level of the entire downward move beginning on June 24.
Source: Tradingview
Read more:
- Altcoins still have tons of catching up to do against their big brother Bitcoin
- Bitcoin price in “bounce or die” position, with it now resting on top of its 21-day EMA