Crypto Experts Predict Bitcoin to Reach $100K After 2024 Halving Event
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has been in the headlines recently, with many investors wondering about its future prospects. According to recent data by CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics firm, the on-chain thesis for a $100K Bitcoin is becoming increasingly likely.
Bitcoin has been offering exceptional returns during early 2023, climbing 69 percent year-to-date. What’s more, the correlation between bitcoin and the technology-related index Nasdaq 100 has weakened, dropping -60 percent from October’s 0,75 to the current value of 0,3. This suggests that bitcoin is becoming less influenced by the stock market, which is a positive sign for its long-term prospects.
The market behavior of Bitcoin can be segmented into accumulation and distribution phases, which form a multi-year sequence of cycles. Accumulation cycles have been favored by smart money (institutions), while distribution cycles have been characterized by retail demand. Bitcoin’s history is also dominated by halving events, which are preceded by pre-halving accumulation cycles.
The shift from accumulation to distribution cycle can be forecasted by fees to reward on-chain data, which tends to spike before each distribution cycle. This phenomenon occurred in 2019 and 2020. Now, the fees to reward indicator seems to be spiking again.
According to the 2019-based price model, Bitcoin is moving towards a spot price level of $46,092, which it should reach during the upcoming summer of 2023. However, the real target is the halving event of 2024, which also represents a paradigm shift in the sequence of Bitcoin’s market cycles.
The estimated date for Bitcoin’s next halving event is 29.4.2024, and it will increase the scarcity of the cryptocurrency by dropping the block reward from 6.25 to 3,125. After reaching the 2019-based target price of $46,092, it’s easy to see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in the aftermath of the 2024 halving event.
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