BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayer bets on Bitcoin’s fall below $40,000

Arthur Hayer, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, has expressed his bearish view on Bitcoin’s price in a tweet on Monday. He said that he thinks Bitcoin will break $40,000 and has bought some put options with a strike price of $35,000, expiring on March 29, 2024. He also predicted that Bitcoin’s decline will continue until the US Treasury announces its quarterly refunding on January 31, 2024.

Hayer’s tweet read: “BTC looks mad heavy. I think we break $40k. I went long some 29Mar $35k strike puts. I think we dump into the 31Jan US Treasury qtly refunding annc. Is Janet Yellen or Talkin’?”

According to the tweet, Hayer may have purchased put options at a price of 0.025 BTC per share, with a total value of 5 BTC. A put option is a contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset at a specified price before a certain date. In this case, Hayer has the right to sell Bitcoin at $35,000 before March 29, 2024, regardless of the market price. If Bitcoin falls below $35,000, he can profit from the difference.

Hayer’s tweet suggests that he believes that the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement will have a negative impact on Bitcoin’s price. The US Treasury issues debt securities to finance the federal government’s spending and borrowing needs. The quarterly refunding announcement provides information on the size, terms, and schedule of the upcoming auctions of Treasury securities. The announcement can affect the supply and demand of US dollars, which in turn can influence the exchange rate of Bitcoin and other currencies.

Hayer’s tweet also implies that he is skeptical of the new US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, who was sworn in on January 25, 2024. Yellen is the first woman to hold the position and has a distinguished career as an economist and a policymaker. She has previously expressed concerns about the illicit use of cryptocurrencies and the need for regulation. She has also stated that she will work with other regulators to ensure a “level playing field” for digital currencies.

Hayer’s tweet has sparked a lot of reactions from the crypto community, with some agreeing with his bearish outlook and some challenging his prediction. Some users also questioned his credibility, as he is facing legal troubles in the US for allegedly violating anti-money laundering and banking secrecy laws. Hayer stepped down as the CEO of BitMEX in October 2020, after the US Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed charges against him and three other BitMEX executives.

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