Bitcoin to become scarcer than gold and real estate, says PlanB

PlanB, the anonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will surpass the market capitalization of gold and real estate after the next Bitcoin Halving in April 2024.

In a tweet on February 3, PlanB said that Bitcoin will be more scarce than gold and real estate, which have S2F ratios of around 60 and 100 respectively. The S2F ratio measures the amount of new supply of an asset relative to its existing stock. A higher S2F ratio implies lower inflation and higher scarcity.

PlanB’s S2F model, which has been widely cited in the crypto community, projects the future price of Bitcoin based on its S2F ratio and its historical relationship with price. According to the model, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio will increase from the current 50 to 110 after the Halving, which will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.

PlanB also implied that Bitcoin’s price will reach at least $500,000, based on the assumption that its market cap will match or exceed that of gold, which is currently over $10 trillion.

PlanB’s prediction is not without empirical support. Data from his website shows that Bitcoin has followed the S2F model with remarkable accuracy, especially after the previous Halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The model suggests that Bitcoin may surge above $55,000 before the next Halving, and reach $532,000 in the long term, possibly by 2025.

However, PlanB’s model is not without critics, who argue that it is based on flawed assumptions, such as the idea that scarcity alone determines value, or that Bitcoin’s supply is fixed at 21 million. Some also point out that the model may fail to account for external factors, such as regulation, innovation, or competition, that may affect Bitcoin’s adoption and demand.

Nevertheless, PlanB’s prediction is a testament to the growing confidence and optimism in the Bitcoin community, as the leading cryptocurrency continues to break new records and attract new investors. Whether or not Bitcoin will fulfill PlanB’s prophecy remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the next Halving will be a historic event for the crypto world.

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