Bitcoin price has risen more than $ 10,000, will $ 100,000 come before 2022 thanks to halving?
Bitcoin price is likely to drop below the 200-week moving average but will be above $ 8,200. In a series of tweets on February 10, cryptocurrency analyst PlanB also predicted that Bitcoin’s price would trade above $ 10,000 in May.
It is not S2F related, and also not WMA200 related. It is a new not yet disclosed indicator that is the result from chain analytics. So if it would drop below $8200 (what I do not expect), then I will drop that indicator.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 10, 2020
The Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price model is still on track
May 2020 is the time of Bitcoin halving. This would kick off the bull run sending the cryptocurrency to $ 100,000 before December 2021.
According to PlanB analyst, Bitcoin’s price will be above the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which has historically grown. The 200WMA growth rate was 3% in December last year, while it has now increased to about 4%.
Bitcoin price Stock-to-flow forecast as of January 2019 | Source: PlanB
Currently, the price of Bitcoin hovering below $ 10,000 means that it is about 14% higher than the $ 8,600 that Stock-to-flow dictates.
Bitcoin price Stock-to-flow multiple as of February 10 | Source: S2F Multiple
This month, traders are continuing to show concern about price adjustment to $ 6,000 or even lower. Quite a lot of people have rejected this idea. Even trader Peter Brandt said that Bitcoin’s price would not drop significantly.
The impact of Bitcoin halving may be delayed
The Stock-to-Flow model uses two indices to chart Bitcoin price trajectories. It is the amount of Bitcoin available compared to the number of new Bitcoin added to circulation. Historically, this model has placed Bitcoin on a par with gold in a position with a supply that is almost impossible to manipulate, unlike fiat.
In the long run, it is expected that the price of Bitcoin will trade at an average of $ 100,000 between 2021 and 2024. However, after that, the weakness of fiat can help Bitcoin reach $ 100,000.
Meanwhile, analyst PlanB also debated the impact of Bitcoin halving in May on prices. In a debate involving analyst and researcher, Nic Carter, he argued that anyone could verify the relationship between flow and prices.
This is not true. The effect of a certain cause can be lagged. It is unscientific to claim that the halving effect must occur in 1 day. It is simple: S2F (and thus halving) and price are correlated. And this correlation is not spurious because cointegrated. Anyone can verify this
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 11, 2020
The effect of a specific cause may be delayed. It is not scientific to declare that the halving effect must occur in a day. The simple thing is that the S2F (and halving) model and prices are correlated. And this correlation is not false because of consolidation. Anyone can verify this.
At press time, the Bitcoin price is fluctuating around $ 10,181, up nearly 4% in the past 24 hours.
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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