Bitcoin bottom is near while death cross signals the painful December
After initiating one of the biggest bullish moves in history on October 25, Bitcoin has been declining ever since. The corollary is a bearish sentiment formed between traders and analysts.
While the long-term outlook looks bearish, the Bitcoin price has shown some momentum in the medium-term – signaling an impending bull rally. In addition, halving BTC in May 2020 will eliminate some long-term downtrends.
While the technical outlook seems to be down, network metrics are showing a more positive outlook. Long-term hodlers don’t sell BTC either as low or high as data show that 11 million Bitcoins have never moved in the past year.
Technical analyst Rekt Capital has posted a weekly chart of Bitcoin that shows prices are falling below an important support area and then confirmed as resistance.
“Closed within the green box on the Monthly – something it had to avoid to retain bullish momentum.
The Range Low (~ $ 7750) has since flipped into a resistance (confirmed on the 1D) which means a revisit of upper $ 6000s remains a possibility for BTC”.
Closed within the green box on the Monthly – something it had to avoid to retain bullish momentum
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) December 2, 2019
Trader Crypto Michaël made a similar point. In his view, prices are likely to produce a slightly lower low, the bottom is near. He also believes that the upcoming halving will have a positive impact on Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin technical analysis
Bitcoin price has been trading in a descending channel since June 24.
The $ 7500 area provided support in three installments in May, June, and October. However, two weeks ago, this stronghold was broken.
Source: Trading View
Bitcoin price currently confirms the area as support after failing to close above it last week. The presence of the 100-week moving average (MA), which is resistance, strengthens this.
According to the Byzantine General, a death cross has appeared on Bitcoin’s monthly MACDs, signaling a painful December. Specifically, the 12-week MA has crossed below the 26-week MA on the monthly chart.
The monthly MACD on #bitcoin just had a bearish cross.
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) December 1, 2019
This signals a negative short-term trend that has more impact on the underlying price movements of BTC. In general, the indicators on the higher time frames give a stronger signal, so the bearish cross on the monthly chart is considered to be particularly bad.
Bitcoin has struggled to regain its momentum from the beginning of the year – the event marking the end of the 2018 crypto winter with a growth of over 300%.
Since then, the market has tended to decrease. Although there are still signs of the breakout but have never been able to surpass this resistance. Similarly, flash crashes frequently occur, although these have so far been offset by strong support.
But, there is currently a strong bullish divergence present in both the RSI & MACD. The current protest began on November 25. From here, the price can immediately move up or create a lower low and then continue moving up.
Source: Trading View
Historically, Bitcoin prices have risen sharply before the halving event took place. If history rhymes, prices will increase gradually until halving takes place in May 2020. In addition, because the support line is currently below the price level, the price is likely to fall further before reversing upward.
Bitcoin price today. Source: Coinmarketcap
Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.
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