Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance are at an ATH, can Bitcoin market cap be projected to go to $ 100 trillion?

The number of new Bitcoin wallet addresses has now reached a new record, exceeding the number of new wallets from a peak of $ 20.000 in 2017.

The most affluent Bitcoin wallet addresses: Not as many as you think

A Twitter user @IncomeSharks recently shared charts from Bitcoin’s on-chain API statistics page and Glassnode page, showing the growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem on various scales.

A chart showing Bitcoin price is directly correlated with the number of new wallets compared to the number of active wallets.

  • The latest data shows that there are approximately 615,463,205 Bitcoin addresses.
  • Of which 28,728,292 addresses currently have air balance.
  • Of those 28 million addresses, only about 788,101 addresses have 1 Bitcoin or more.
  • There are 154,689 wallet addresses with balances of more than 10 Bitcoin.
  • With balances above 100 BTC, currently, there are only about 16,247 wallet addresses.
  • Some of the whales on the market with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC are only 2,156.
  • And some of the leading whales with 10.000 BTC and above only have 105 addresses (including Trace Mayer and Roger Ver).

New wallet address increases rapidly when Halving is near

The number of unique users participating in the Bitcoin market is also reaching a record number. However, the number of wallet addresses with large balances is deficient.

Bitcoin has the potential to become the world’s standard value transfer tool and currently has only 28 million addresses with balances, suggesting that the investment aspect is still very imbalanced after more than a decade.

What is the logarithmic regression band? How will the market grow?

YouTube’s famous cryptocurrency analyst, Benjamin Cowen, looked at the logarithmic regression band for the total market cap of cryptocurrencies in his latest video. And based on his analysis, that total digital asset market capitalization could reach $ 10 trillion in the next price increase.

The logarithmic regression band is the range of values ​​that the cryptocurrency market tends to return to when it’s not in a bubble. The green stripe represents it in the chart below. This line forms smooth curve overtime when plotted on a logarithmic scale. At the peak of the 2017-2018 bubble/burst cycle, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has reached almost $ 1 trillion. However, it has fallen back into the regression range and is currently at around $ 290 billion.


Source: Benjamin Cowen video

Plotting the difference between total market capitalization and the lowest point of the regression band over time shows that the highest level is becoming lower with each market cycle. This supports the theory of diminishing returns over time.

Assuming this behavior continues, we can predict a potential peak on the regression range for the next significant price increase. The likely outcome of this would be the total market capitalization of about 10 trillion dollars at the peak of the next bubble. In this scenario, the market cap is likely to fluctuate within the regression range for a while before starting to climb.

Will the Bitcoin market cap increase to 100 trillion dollars?

According to PlanB’s stock to flow (S2F) model, Bitcoin market capitalization alone is expected to reach $ 100 trillion.

Of course, Bitcoin $ 100 trillion still has some difficulties in the future. The projected price increases in the S2F model happen because of the artificial limiting of supply over time. The next Halving will happen in May this year.

However, the $ 100 trillion predictions will not happen until the second half later, or sometimes by 2028. So now, the $ 10 trillion market capitalization in 2022 is what important/

At the current levels of Bitcoin dominance, the total market capitalization of $ 10 trillion for BTC is about $ 330,000, so that’s something to look forward to.

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